By Emily Kaiser

 

updated 3/27/2011 7:23:01 PM ET

 

WASHINGTON— The U.S. labor market is
finally improving, just when many of the other
economic indicators are wavering.

Jobs are considered a lagging indicator. They
typically recover many months after the
economy comes out of a recession, and this
cycle was no exception. So will troubles in
Japan, Libya and elsewhere push up U.S.
unemployment later this year?

"The U.S. economy is headed for another soft
patch brought on by the double shock," said
IHS Global Insight chief economist Nariman

Behravesh, referring to Japan and upheaval in
the oil-producing Arab world.

Assuming oil prices stabilize and Japan's
reconstruction and recovery begin in the next
few months — as most economists currently
expect — Behravesh says the soft patch will

 

likely be short-lived. If he's right, the impact
on the labor market should be minimal.
Friday brings the March employment report,
and economists polled by Reuters are looking
for growth of about 188,000 jobs, with the
unemployment rate holding steady at 8.9
percent.

This employment report carries a bit more
uncertainty than usual because it arrives
before some of the early indicators
economists rely on to fine-tune their
forecasts.

Normally, the jobs report is released after the
monthly Institute for Supply Management
readings on manufacturing and services, both
of which contain employment measures.

Not so this time.

The ISM manufacturing survey comes out on
Friday, about 90 minutes after the jobs data,

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Shannon Stapleton / Reuters file

People wait in line to enter the City University of New York (CUNY) Big Apple job fair in New York on April 23, 2010.